Finally the Fed meeting came out in a more positive tone than some analysts had expected.
They left unchanged the rate forecasts for this year, so members are expecting a new hike from here to December, they also maintained the three expected hikes for 2018. The negative note came from the long-term rate forecast, modifying it slightly from 3% in June to 2.80% now, hence the initial USD reaction that corrected downward in the first few bars after the announcement. Also they upgraded their forecast of 2017 GDP growth by 0.2% and the unemployment rate down to 4.1% by the end of the year.
During the press conference we saw the more hawkish version of Janet Yellen, assuring that the recent downward preassures on inflation is something temporary and considering also that the impact of the hurricanes Harvey and Irma will not have a great effect in the economy.
Since the announcement, the market has adjusted the probability of a rate hike for December, going from 50% to almost 70%, with treasuries offered increasing their yields to 2.28% in the 10y and reaching a 9 year high in the 2y at 1.445%.
USD purchases against major exchanges with important movements in those currencies whose central banks maintain, at least for the moment, the accommodative policy, see BoJ or SNB.
In terms of data the most remarkable in the US are the weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed index, and the leading indicator index.
EURUSD H&S formation. 1.1850 neckline, if it was broken 1.16ish objective
Short EURUSD 1.20 - TP 1.1650 - SL 1.21
Note: This analysis is a personal opinion based on my experience, not a professional signal service. For trading, you must base your decisions on your own criteria
