From today until Saturday, the main event for central
bankers will take place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with the highlights been the appearances of Mario Draghi (ECB) and
Janet Yellen (Fed) .
Expectations are high once again; in this stance the
market will look for clues as to what will be the next move of both central
banks.
There are many conspiracy theories that affirm that at
this particular event, agreements are reached at the highest level on how the
currencies will evolve in the medium term. It is not necessary to emphasizes
the important of the USD, reserve currency, and its correlation with all the
different assets; Stocks, bonds, gold, oil and commodities in general .
In this brief article I try to analyze the impact in
the American currency (USD Index) of this meeting since 2000, obtaining the
following conclusions:
- On 9 occasions the event has marked an inflection
point in the USD
- In 14 of the last 17 years the USD has continued the
trend started after the meeting for at least 2 months
- In a bullish trend (8 of the 14 occasions
mentioned), the average USD appreciation was 2.65% in the subsequent 2 months
- In the downtrend (6 of the 13 occasions mentioned)
the average depreciation of the USD has been of 4.9% in the subsequent 2 months
- Only 2 times the initial impact of the meeting has
been reversed (including the year 2008 with the Lehman
Brothers collapse, September 15)
Based on my analysis I will conclude that this meeting
will setup the tone and the direction for the next few weeks, and we will position
myself using “the trend is your friend” behavior trading pattern.
USD Index and Jackson Hole (vertical marks)
Nota: Este análisis es una opinión personal basada en mi experiencia, no es un servicio profesional de señales. A la hora de operar debe basar sus decisiones en su propio criterio
